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China's rare earth controls could trigger dollar collapse

China’s Rare Earth Controls | A Dollar Crisis Looms?

By

Zoe Chang

Oct 20, 2025, 07:24 PM

Edited By

Carlos Silva

Updated

Oct 21, 2025, 12:04 PM

2 minutes to read

A visual representation of China's export controls on rare earth elements affecting the U.S. dollar's stability, with a graphic showing a downward trend for the dollar alongside rare earth symbols.

China’s recent export controls on rare earth minerals are causing a stir, with analysts warning this could severely impact the US dollar's standing in global markets. By controlling over 90% of these essential minerals, experts believe China’s move could spark shifts in supply chains and economic stability.

Understanding the Current Situation

As China limits exports for military use, the fallout threatens to create chaos in global trade. Analyst Luke Gromen highlights that these restrictions could disrupt established economic patterns, leading to a marked decline in the dollar's value. Some commentators express skepticism over the adequacy of US resources, emphasizing, "It isn't the mining; it's the refining."

Perspectives on Rare Earth Production

Debate continues around rare earth extraction, showcasing differing views:

  • Several people argue that significant lithium deposits exist in Alaska, calling for more sustainable mining methods.

  • Some contend that China's lenient environmental laws make it more efficient to exploit its resources.

  • Participants voice concerns about geopolitical tensions, saying, "Everybody can try to mine rare earth metals; nearly no one but China can do that."

"China currently controls around 50% of the world's rare earth minerals," notes one expert.

Key Sentiments Surface

Comments indicate mixed feelings about US reliance on China:

  • πŸ”΄ Some expressed frustration, raising questions about the consequences of these restrictions on the dollar’s future.

  • βšͺ Others find hope in potential US shifts toward local resource refinement and processing.

  • πŸ’¬ Positive talks surfaced about Western collaboration to enhance processing capacities, depicting a united front against reliance on China.

Growing Concerns and Possible Outcomes

As the US benefits from a paradigm shift in mineral processing, some estimate that within two or three years, up to 30% of demand could be met locally. There's a pressing call to reduce dependency on China, potentially leading Western tech firms and investors to intensify collaborations. The increasing interest in hard assets like Bitcoin also reveals a movement towards diversified financial solutions amid currency fears.

Historical Context

This scenario resembles the California Gold Rush, where resource scrambles not only spurred innovations but also shaped infrastructure. Today’s race for rare earth minerals, similar to historical quests for gold, promises substantial advancements in technology and energy.

Interestingly, while the minerals hold intrinsic value, the true wealth lies in the emerging systems, partnerships, and economic frameworks. As nations realign their strategies, will this lead to a new chapter in global economics?

Takeaways

  • 🟑 Analysts are advocating for investments in hard assets like Bitcoin as currency risk rises.

  • πŸ”΄ New restrictions could quicken the dollar’s descent, reshaping global supply chains.

  • βšͺ β€œThis is how the Soviets were talking about America right before they” - a comment reflecting historical analogies.

With these changes unfolding, the urgency for a strategic US response grows ever vital. It's a transformative period that could redefine how nations navigate rare earth demands and economic autonomy.