JPMorgan Upgrades Coinbase | Price Target Jump Sparks User Debate

Coinbase's stock received a notable boost from JPMorgan, which upgraded the crypto platform from "Neutral" to "Overweight" on October 26, 2025. The price target is now set at $404 per share. Following this news, the stock surged by over 9%.

What's Behind the Upgrade?

JPMorgan's upgrade stems from two significant developments within Coinbase. The most compelling factor is the anticipated launch of Base, Coinbase's layer-2 network. Analysts believe if Base issues its own token, it could hold a market cap ranging from $12 billion to $34 billion. This could potentially yield $4 billion to $12 billion for Coinbase itself. However, it’s worth noting that the distribution of the token may primarily benefit developers and the broader Base community.

The second element influencing JPMorgan's decision is changes planned for the USDC rewards program. Currently, Coinbase offers interest rewards for all users holding USDC. The banking giant anticipates a shift where rewards might become available only to Coinbase One subscribers. Such a move could increase annual earnings by approximately $374 million, as Coinbase retains a larger share of the interest income.

"This makes strategic sense from a business perspective, but users on regular accounts may feel left out," a market analyst noted.

Users Weigh In

The implications of these developments have sparked discussions among people on forums. One notable point made is the risk for regular users holding USDC who aren’t paying for the Coinbase One membership. Alternatives like Kraken and OKX are already offering competitive interest rates of 4% on USDG, prompting some to consider switching platforms.

A board member commented, "I don’t currently have a One membership. The alternatives look promising."

Key Takeaways

• 📈 JPMorgan set Coinbase’s price target at $404, leading to a 9% stock bounce.

• ⚠️ Potential USDC rewards shifts could exclude regular users, emphasizing the need for a Coinbase One subscription.

• 🤑 The Base token speculation suggests substantial revenue opportunities, albeit primarily benefiting developers.

As Coinbase prepares to report Q3 earnings on October 30, expectations are high, with estimates of $3.47 per share and $1.57 billion in revenue, representing substantial year-over-year growth. If these changes go ahead, they will not only impact shareholders but also reshape the experience for everyday users. Will Coinbase's decisions favour investors at the expense of its community?

Forecasting the Road Ahead

There’s a strong chance that Coinbase will move quickly to solidify the benefits of its anticipated Base launch. Experts estimate around a 70% probability that the new token will hit the projected market cap, which may attract a greater developer community and boost Coinbase's revenue in the coming year. Given the competitive pressure from other platforms offering attractive interest rates, Coinbase is likely to implement the USDC changes. This could isolate users without a Coinbase One membership, leading to an estimated 40% of regular users reconsidering their loyalty. As these developments unfold, how they balance investor interests against community needs will be crucial for sustaining their market position.

A Reflection from the Past

In the world of telecommunications, a shift reminiscent of today’s Coinbase situation occurred during the rise of smartphone apps in the late 2000s. Companies like Blackberry, which once ruled the market, overlooked consumer preferences for simpler app access, much like Coinbase might overlook its regular users. Those who adapted quickly—like Apple—began to dominate, offering users what they wanted rather than sticking strictly to premium service models. As Coinbase charts its course forward, it might find valuable lessons in the past when prioritizing its community leads to stronger overall returns in a volatile market.